Theme 03 · Structural
The Space Economy
Reusable rockets collapsed the cost of reaching orbit, and that single change unlocked a broad commercial market: satellite broadband, Earth observation, national-security constellations, and - newest of all - AI compute in orbit. Launch cadence is compounding, defense budgets are funding mega-constellations, and Starlink alone is now a multi-billion-dollar business. The investable layers are the launchers, the satellite and ground-system manufacturers, and the connectivity providers - the companies that get paid whether the payload is a broadband dish, a spy satellite, or a data center.
The demand engine
~$1.8T
Global space economy by 2035, from ~$613B in 2024 (WEF / McKinsey)
~165
SpaceX launches in 2025 (from 134 in 2024) - ~85% of all US launches
~$11B
Starlink 2025 revenue, ~10M+ subscribers, targeting 20M+ by 2030
$3.5B
SDA Tranche 3 award - 72 missile-tracking satellites (Dec 2025)
By the numbers, 2026-2035
The market
- Global space economy ~$613B (2024, +7.8%), ~78% commercial; crosses $1T in the early-to-mid 2030s and reaches ~$1.8T by 2035 (base case, ~9% CAGR). Space Foundation 2025; WEF / McKinsey 2024
Launch - the cost collapse
- SpaceX flew 134 launches (2024) to ~165 (2025), ~85% of US launches; Starship in flight test toward higher cadence and payload. Launch records, 2025-26
- Global launch-services market ~$35-41B by 2030 (~14% CAGR); small-launch a fast-growing niche. Cross-firm estimates
Broadband & direct-to-device
- Starlink ~$11.4B revenue in 2025 (~61% of SpaceX), ~10M+ subscribers, analysts model 20M+ by 2030. Secondary estimates, 2025-26
- Direct-to-device (phone-to-satellite) market ~$2.6-12B by 2030 depending on scope - consolidating around SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile. M&M / Omdia, 2026
Defense space - the near-term catalyst
- US Space Force budget ~$29B (FY25); SDA Tranche 3: $3.5B / 72 satellites (Dec 2025) split across Lockheed, L3Harris, Rocket Lab and Northrop. US DoD / SDA, 2025
- "Golden Dome" missile-defense architecture estimated at ~$175B (White House) up to ~$1.2T over 20 years (CBO) - large but highly uncertain. White House; CBO, May 2026
Earth observation & AI in orbit
- Earth-observation market growing ~6-9% CAGR to 2030; small-sat EO ~16%; imagery increasingly sold as AI-ready data. Grand View / Mordor
- Space-based compute is real but nascent: Starcloud ran an NVIDIA H100 in orbit (Nov 2025), Blackwell planned 2026; Google's Project Suncatcher targets TPU satellites by 2027. No credible market size yet. NVIDIA / CNBC / Google, 2025-26
Earnings-growth potential (analyst estimates & company guidance)
Estimates / guidance, not actuals - fast-moving; verify before acting. Several space names are early-stage and cash-burning.
Beneficiaries on the screen (live verdicts)
Sources are named inline (Space Foundation, WEF/McKinsey, US DoD/SDA, CBO, Grand View, NVIDIA, company filings/guidance); figures are forecasts or analyst estimates and may be revised, and Golden Dome / Starlink projections carry high uncertainty. Not investment advice. The author is not a licensed or certified financial advisor; this is for informational and educational purposes only. Invest at your own risk.